A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
